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DATA4600 Business Analytics Project Management

DATA4600 Business Analytics Project Management.

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Lesson Learning Outcomes
Lesson Learning Outcomes
1
1
Review broad reasons for success and failure
Review broad reasons for success and failure of data projectsof data projects
2
2
Define risk analysis
Define risk analysis
3
3
Investigate how Predictive Project Analytics is
Investigate how Predictive Project Analytics is used to: used to:

•Identify characteristics of project success Identify characteristics of project success

•Identify the rIdentify the riskiskof failureof failure
using a real
using a real–world exampleworld example
Big Idea
Big Ideahttps://www.projectmanager.com/blog/planninghttps://www.projectmanager.com/blog/planning–quotesquotes
How Many
How Many DData ata PProjects rojects SSucceed?ucceed?

•It’s not the fact you have a lot of data, it’s It’s not the fact you have a lot of data, it’s about the business problem you want to solve.about the business problem you want to solve.

•You need to be clear about your business You need to be clear about your business goals and measures of success (KPIs used).goals and measures of success (KPIs used).

•If you are part of a larger organisation, you If you are part of a larger organisation, you must align your project with the overall must align your project with the overall company strategy.company strategy.
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Q.
Q. Can we use predictive project analytics (PPA) to Can we use predictive project analytics (PPA) to determine factors required for project success?determine factors required for project success?
How Many Data Projects Fail?
How Many Data Projects Fail?https://www.digitalnewsasia.com/insights/whyhttps://www.digitalnewsasia.com/insights/why–8585–bigbig–datadata–projectsprojects–failfail

•Gartner suggested 60% of big data projects failGartner suggested 60% of big data projects fail

•It may be more, but how can we really tell? It may be more, but how can we really tell?

•Projects fail for many reasonsProjects fail for many reasons
Q.
Q. Can we use Analytics to determine exactly why projects fail?Can we use Analytics to determine exactly why projects fail?
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What is Risk
What is Risk AAnalysis?nalysis?

•The process of: The process of:

-Identifying events that may make your project failIdentifying events that may make your project fail

-Assessing the likelihood of those events Assessing the likelihood of those events

-Determining the cost of those events Determining the cost of those events

-Determining strategies for limiting each adverse Determining strategies for limiting each adverse event (mitigation)event (mitigation)

•Tools for measuring/comparing risk levelsTools for measuring/comparing risk levels

•NEW methods: NEW methods: Predictive analytics, simulation, Predictive analytics, simulation, scenario and/or sensitivity testingscenario and/or sensitivity testing

•OLD methodsOLD methods: Manual risk matrices: Manual risk matriceshttps://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/riskhttps://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/risk–analysis.aspanalysis.asp
Risk Matrices (Tables)
Risk Matrices (Tables)

•Have been completed manually in the pastHave been completed manually in the past

•Provide a relative measure of risksProvide a relative measure of risks

•Use traffic light colours or other shading to indicate the level of risk, e.g.Use traffic light colours or other shading to indicate the level of risk, e.g.

–RedRed= high risk = high risk

–Orange/Orange/= medium risk= medium risk

–GreenGreen= low risk= low risk

•Tables take different forms Tables take different forms

•DisadvantageDisadvantage: Manual assignment of risk level may be arbitrary: Manual assignment of risk level may be arbitrary
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Risk Matrix Example 1
Risk Matrix Example 1https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/sg/Documents/financialhttps://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/sg/Documents/financial–services/sgservices/sg–fsifsi–seminarseminar–20162016–radishradish–singhsingh–emergingemerging–trendstrends–solutionssolutions–amlaml–cftcft–noexp.pdfnoexp.pdf
Business Problem
Business Problem

•Suppose that you are part of a project team for the Suppose that you are part of a project team for the South Australian Health South Australian Health and Medical Research Institute (and Medical Research Institute (SAHMRI)SAHMRI)

•The team has been conducting a multiThe team has been conducting a multi–faceted clinical information project setting faceted clinical information project setting up a clinical evidence data ecosystemup a clinical evidence data ecosystem

•The twoThe two–year project is to year project is to identify and match upidentify and match up–toto–date medication data (from date medication data (from pharmaceutical databases) and technologies, with data on existing diseases (in pharmaceutical databases) and technologies, with data on existing diseases (in government and other company databases) for all AUS health professionalsgovernment and other company databases) for all AUS health professionals

•As year one ends, the head investigator reports to the sponsors. The sponsors As year one ends, the head investigator reports to the sponsors. The sponsors suddenly realise that a lot of the budget has been spent already and progress is suddenly realise that a lot of the budget has been spent already and progress is not what they were expecting. not what they were expecting.

•Questions are asked about the timeline, reporting practices and budget of this Questions are asked about the timeline, reporting practices and budget of this and similar successful projects to work out if this project will still be successful.and similar successful projects to work out if this project will still be successful.
Question
Question: : Could analytics have helped the Could analytics have helped the project team plan and perform better?project team plan and perform better?
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What is Predictive Analytics?
What is Predictive Analytics?

•A type of analytics for making predictionsA type of analytics for making predictions

–Uses statistical techniques as a backbone and Uses statistical techniques as a backbone and

–Machine learningMachine learning

•Applications and predictive analytics partnersApplications and predictive analytics partners

•Finance (Finance (PaypalPaypaland and RapidminerRapidminer))

•Health (Texas Children’s Hospital and Health Catalyst)Health (Texas Children’s Hospital and Health Catalyst)

•Heavy Industry (Various Oil and Gas companies and Pavilion 8 model)Heavy Industry (Various Oil and Gas companies and Pavilion 8 model)

•Consumer Goods (O’Brien’s Sandwich Bar and Presidion)Consumer Goods (O’Brien’s Sandwich Bar and Presidion)

•Transport ( Transport ( ChronopostChronopostand and DataikuDataiku))https://emerj.com/aihttps://emerj.com/ai–sectorsector–overviews/predictiveoverviews/predictive–analyticsanalytics–55–examplesexamples–ofof–industryindustry–applications/applications/https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/be/Documents/risk/behttps://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/be/Documents/risk/be–araara–predictivepredictive–projectproject–analyticsanalytics–22–0.pdf0.pdf
What is Predictive Analytics?
What is Predictive Analytics?

•So how can this be applied to project risk management?So how can this be applied to project risk management?

•Predictive project analytics Predictive project analytics provides integrated monitoring provides integrated monitoring and analysesand analyseshttps://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/be/Documents/risk/behttps://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/be/Documents/risk/be–araara–predictivepredictive–projectproject–analyticsanalytics–22–0.pdf0.pdf
Predictive Project Analytics
Predictive Project Analytics
Predictive Project Analytics (PPA)
Predictive Project Analytics (PPA)

•Predictive project analytics Predictive project analytics is the use of analyticsis the use of analytics–based tools and based tools and techniques for handling project risk factors and optimising success techniques for handling project risk factors and optimising success (“value return”) of projects(“value return”) of projects

•Uses Uses Market Intelligence Market Intelligence (data on the features of many successfully (data on the features of many successfully completed projects is used to predict successcompleted projects is used to predict success

•Suggests potential risks and control gaps early or in realSuggests potential risks and control gaps early or in real–timetime

•Employs industryEmploys industry–accepted frameworks and standardsaccepted frameworks and standards

•Can automate reporting dashboardsCan automate reporting dashboards

•Provides cost controlProvides cost controlhttps://deloitte.wsj.com/riskandcompliance/2018/10/22/mitigatinghttps://deloitte.wsj.com/riskandcompliance/2018/10/22/mitigating–projectproject–riskrisk–withwith–predictivepredictive–analytics/analytics/https://deloitte.wsj.com/cio/2012/05/08/ahttps://deloitte.wsj.com/cio/2012/05/08/a–fivefive–stagestage–approachapproach–toto–predictivepredictive–projectproject–analytics/analytics/
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Value of Prediction
Value of Predictionhttps://www.bdu.de/media/177649/predictivehttps://www.bdu.de/media/177649/predictive–projectproject–analytics_artikel_gpm.pdfanalytics_artikel_gpm.pdf
Glossary 1
Glossary 1

•Inherent risk Inherent risk = raw or natural/ untreated risk i.e. the level = raw or natural/ untreated risk i.e. the level of risk which would occur without applying any risk controls of risk which would occur without applying any risk controls (mitigation measures).(mitigation measures).

•The risk is higher if the task is complex.The risk is higher if the task is complex.

•For example, in a financial context: For example, in a financial context: risk posed by an error, risk posed by an error, misleading information or omission in a financial statement misleading information or omission in a financial statement due to a factor other than a failure of internal controls.due to a factor other than a failure of internal controls.https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/inherenthttps://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/inherent–risk.asprisk.asp
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Glossary 2
Glossary 2

•Project ControlProject Control= any process, system, measurement or = any process, system, measurement or practice established to support governance, management practice established to support governance, management and compliance of a projectand compliance of a project

•Examples Examples

–A system in place for approval of payments to stakeholders is a A system in place for approval of payments to stakeholders is a financial controlfinancial control

–Occupational, health and safety rules are types of controls for Occupational, health and safety rules are types of controls for worker well beingworker well being
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Benefits of PPA
Benefits of PPA

•Allows business to transformAllows business to transform

•Compares current project performance to that (predicted Compares current project performance to that (predicted as) required to succeedas) required to succeed

•Highlights inefficiencies and missing controls, e.g. lack of Highlights inefficiencies and missing controls, e.g. lack of skills, budget, risk managementskills, budget, risk management

•Flexible and scalableFlexible and scalable

•Improved transparency and integrationImproved transparency and integrationhttps://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/us/Documents/financialhttps://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/us/Documents/financial–services/usservices/us–enablingenabling–projectproject–successsuccess–throughthrough–analyticsanalytics–plaplacemat.pdfcemat.pdf
Activity 1: The Power of Predictive
Activity 1: The Power of Predictive Project AnalyticsProject Analytics

•Form groups, and watch the video on predictive project Form groups, and watch the video on predictive project analyticsanalyticshttpshttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4FFx2rLI://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4FFx2rLI–JAJA

•Answer the followingAnswer the following
Q1. Define and list four features of PPA?
Q1. Define and list four features of PPA?
Q2. What did analytics professionals do in preparation for creating the PPA
Q2. What did analytics professionals do in preparation for creating the PPA engine?engine?
Q3. What data do Deloitte have as part of the analytics engine for
Q3. What data do Deloitte have as part of the analytics engine for comparison with any project to be reviewed for potential risk and success?comparison with any project to be reviewed for potential risk and success?
Revisiting Business P
Revisiting Business Problemroblem

•Suppose that you are part of a project team for the Suppose that you are part of a project team for the South Australian Health South Australian Health and Medical Research Institute (and Medical Research Institute (SAMRI)SAMRI)

•The team has been conducting a multiThe team has been conducting a multi–faceted clinical information project faceted clinical information project setting up a clinical evidence data ecosystemsetting up a clinical evidence data ecosystem

•The twoThe two–year project is to year project is to identify and match upidentify and match up–toto–date medication data (from date medication data (from pharmaceutical databases) and technologies, with data on existing diseases (in pharmaceutical databases) and technologies, with data on existing diseases (in Government and other company databases) for all AUS health professionalsGovernment and other company databases) for all AUS health professionals

•As year one ends, the head investigator reports to the sponsors. The sponsors As year one ends, the head investigator reports to the sponsors. The sponsors suddenly realise that a lot of the budget has been spent already and progress is suddenly realise that a lot of the budget has been spent already and progress is not what they were expecting. not what they were expecting.

•Questions are asked about the timeline, reporting practices and budget of this Questions are asked about the timeline, reporting practices and budget of this and similar successful projects to work out if this project will still be successful.and similar successful projects to work out if this project will still be successful.
Five Stage Approach
Five Stage Approach

•Deloitte use a fiveDeloitte use a five–stage approach in their PPA processstage approach in their PPA process
1.
1.Stakeholder Interviews and structured document reviewStakeholder Interviews and structured document review
2.
2.Inherent risk and complexity assessmentInherent risk and complexity assessment
3.
3.Predictive analytic project review (other projects)Predictive analytic project review (other projects)
4.
4.Analysis and synthesis (aggregation of output)Analysis and synthesis (aggregation of output)
5.
5.Report findingsReport findingshttps://deloitte.wsj.com/cio/2012/05/08/ahttps://deloitte.wsj.com/cio/2012/05/08/a–fivefive–stagestage–approachapproach–toto–predictivepredictive–projectproject–analytics/analytics/
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Five Stage Approach
Five Stage Approach

•Let’s consider each stage via activitiesLet’s consider each stage via activities
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Activity 1 Background
Activity 1 Backgroundhttps://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/us/Documents/financialhttps://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/us/Documents/financial–services/usservices/us–enablingenabling–projectproject–successsuccess–throughthrough–analyticsanalytics–placemat.pdfplacemat.pdf

•Stage one of the PPA involves Stage one of the PPA involves a number of interviews with a number of interviews with key project team members key project team members and stakeholders, followed by and stakeholders, followed by a review of core project plans, a review of core project plans, reports, and logs.reports, and logs.

•This information feeds into the This information feeds into the complexity assessment. complexity assessment.
Activity 1: Stage 1
Activity 1: Stage 1https://deloitte.wsj.com/cio/2012/05/08/ahttps://deloitte.wsj.com/cio/2012/05/08/a–fivefive–stagestage–approachapproach–toto–predictivepredictive–projectproject–analytics/analytics/
Interviews (of team and stakeholders) and structured
Interviews (of team and stakeholders) and structured document reviewdocument review

•Form groups and answer the following questions:Form groups and answer the following questions:
Q1. Who are the core team members and stakeholders in the SAMRI
Q1. Who are the core team members and stakeholders in the SAMRI project?project?
Q2. What documents do you think will be reviewed at this stage of the
Q2. What documents do you think will be reviewed at this stage of the project?project?
Activity 2 Background
Activity 2 Backgroundhttps://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/us/Documents/financialhttps://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/us/Documents/financial–services/usservices/us–enablingenabling–projectproject–successsuccess–throughthrough–analyticsanalytics–placemat.pdfplacemat.pdf

•Deloitte’s PPA attempts to link Deloitte’s PPA attempts to link your project’s complexity to its your project’s complexity to its controls and outcomescontrols and outcomes

•A A complexity profile complexity profile is is constructed based on various constructed based on various criteria (e.g.29 factors and 5 criteria (e.g.29 factors and 5 domains)domains)
Factor Examples:
Factor Examples:

•Level of accountability Level of accountability

•Schedule complexity Schedule complexity

•Financial cost Financial cost

•Stakeholder alignment Stakeholder alignment

•Risk Risk

•Impact on infrastructureImpact on infrastructure
Activity 2: Stage 2
Activity 2: Stage 2https://deloitte.wsj.com/cio/2012/05/08/ahttps://deloitte.wsj.com/cio/2012/05/08/a–fivefive–stagestage–approachapproach–toto–predictivepredictive–projectproject–analytics/analytics/
Inherent risk and complexity assessment
Inherent risk and complexity assessment

•Let’s consider the main objective of the SAHMRI project data:Let’s consider the main objective of the SAHMRI project data:

•The twoThe two–year project is to year project is to identify and match upidentify and match up–toto–date medication data date medication data (from pharmaceutical databases) and technologies, with data on existing (from pharmaceutical databases) and technologies, with data on existing diseases (in government and other company databases) for all AUS health diseases (in government and other company databases) for all AUS health professionalsprofessionals

•Form groups and answer the following questionsForm groups and answer the following questions
Q1. Suggest four potential risks that you think the PPA should detect with
Q1. Suggest four potential risks that you think the PPA should detect with thetheSAHMRI project.SAHMRI project.
Q2. Suggest one feature that might make it into the complexity profile for
Q2. Suggest one feature that might make it into the complexity profile for this project?this project?
Activity 3 Background
Activity 3 Backgroundhttps://deloitte.wsj.com/cio/2012/05/08/ahttps://deloitte.wsj.com/cio/2012/05/08/a–fivefive–stagestage–approachapproach–toto–predictivepredictive–projectproject–analytics/analytics/

•The predictive analytics program is applied to the main The predictive analytics program is applied to the main project attributes, producing a correlation between project project attributes, producing a correlation between project complexity, controls, and success. complexity, controls, and success.

•Deloitte uses a database of over 2,000 projects for this Deloitte uses a database of over 2,000 projects for this stage. stage.

•An effective assessment of “soft factors” is also done.An effective assessment of “soft factors” is also done.

–Soft factors are business leadership and decisionSoft factors are business leadership and decision–making making
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